Insight into data:
China has seen a slight increase in their Covid related death rate last week raising questions about whether the relaxation of social isolation is resulting in a second wave of infections.
Also striking from the chart is the trajectory of Italy and UK – the UK being two weeks behind Italy with it’s infection and death rate.
Russia has crept into the “Top Ten Worst Countries” for confirmed cases with a huge jump between week ten and thirteen. Does this indicate a real sea change in infection or simply better reporting of their situation by the authorities?
We are all at the risk of going “opinion blind” – bombarded by so many experts and pundits both here (but more widely in Europe and the USA), that we risk missing the story that the data is actually telling us. At the moment the data coming out of our Covid-19 dashboard is showing that while not yet suffering the same volume of deaths as say Italy or Spain, the UK outbreak is proving to have a drastic impact in the global figures. Currently the UK has more deaths per million on the population than it’s wider European counterparts AND a higher infection rate per million as well.
As several European countries begin to address loosening the lockdown, it’s also worth noting that our data implies this might be a little premature – while the UK infection rate is slowing (though not yet levelling) several European nations are seeing a slow but steady increase in infection rates again – implying a potential second wave.
Faced with anxious populations (and economies) Governments will need to balance the desperate desire for some semblance of a return to normal with the very real risk that any lifting of the lockdown will be proved too much too soon.